Welcome to another edition of HMF’s MLB Slate breakdown. We’re going to talk some tournament tactics on Fanduel tonight and it should be a pretty quick write up here with just a 4-game slate.
Chris Sale ($11,300): Chris Sale is BY FAR the best pitching option on this slate and he may very well be the only pitching option. Sale has been absolutely dealing for his new team, with Fanduel point performances of 46, 51, 64, and 67. The Yankees have actually been pretty solid against lefties this season but, I still don’t think they’re any match for Sale, especially without Gary Sanchez in the lineup. My philosophy is almost always to pay up for the Ace of the slate and Sale is the surest bet on this small slate tonight.
Adam Wainwright ($7,900): The only other pitcher I’m considering is Wainwright, and I say that with some hesitation as Wainwight has not looked good this season. His only game over 30 FD points was against the Milwaukee Brewers and he hasn’t pitched over 5 innings once this season. With that being said, this Blue Jays team has been horrible against righties this season as they have the 4th lowest wRC+ vs. righties and the 8th highest K%. Wainwright should also get a lot of run support and a decent shot at the win as he is a -190 favorite, largest on the slate. I’m probably going to pay up for Sale but, if you need some salary relief I’d go with Wainwright.
Arizona Diamondbacks: I think this will be the most popular team to stack on the day and for good reason. The Diamondbacks are playing at home, in Chase Field, which is the 2nd most hitter friendly park in the league just slightly behind Coors. They also get a dream matchup against gas can Jered Weaver which explains their 6-run team total (Highest on the slate). Weaver hasn’t actually gotten lit up so far this year which is surprising considering he played a game in Coors but that should change as his FIP (6.45) is far above his ERA (3.91) this season and his BABIP is absurdly low. I’m fine with anyone in the top four in Arizona’s order, Pollock ($4,100), Peralta ($3,300), Goldschmidt ($4,300), and Lamb ($3,800), though they are expensive and they’re going to be a little hard to fit with Sale. All of them mash against basically every pitch Weaver throws, especially Peralta, and I don’t mind taking a shot at Chris Owings ($3,300) later in the order.
St. Louis Cardinals: I haven’t really played the Cardinals all season because they’ve been pretty bad but, they’re seeing some serious respect from Vegas today against rookie pitcher Casey Lawrence. Their implied team total is right around 5 runs with a massive money line of -190 that has grown -35 on the day. That tells us that either Vegas is really in love with Adam Wainwright today or they think this is a very nice spot for the Cards bats, I’m going to side with the latter. This is the 2nd game of a double header and the Cardinals aren’t looking great right now (just one run through seven innings) but this is a decent spot to target them against Casey Lawrence. Lawrence has actually looked good throughout his minor league career and hasn’t had an xFIP over 4 since 2012. However, he hasn’t looked good in his short stint so far this season and all of Fangraphs projection systems have him projected with close to a 5 ERA this season. The Cardinals bats to target would be the top four in the order, Fowler ($3,100), Diaz ($3,000), Carpenter ($3,300), and Gyrorko ($3,100). At those price tags they’ll probably be the most popular stack to pair with Sale and while I certainly don’t mind them, I think you can get the Padres bats in a similarly good spot for lower ownership.
Other Stacks to consider: SD Padres, NYY (Hedge stack)
Mike Trout ($4,900): There’s not much more to be said about Mike Trout. He’s the best hitter in baseball and even on a 4-game slate, he’s going to be virtually unowned because people want to pay up for Sale and the Diamondbacks. You need to have some exposure to Trout in tournaments tonight.
Manuel Margot ($2,600): If you aren’t stacking the Padres, I would definitely still go with a one-off of Margot. He’s leading off for a team with a 4.6 run team total, he’s showed some pop this season, and while I’m bullish on Taijuan Walker’s future, he’s not very good right now. This price tag is just too cheap on Margot.
Jed Lowrie ($2,300) / Jaff Decker ($2,300): You’re going to need some cheap bats to fit in Sale and I think a couple of guys at the top of the order (1 & 2) who have the platoon advantage against Ricky Nolasco are decent options. The fact they are also on the road gives them a nice shot at five at bats.
Thanks for the read guys! Good luck to everyone tonight, if you enjoyed this article feel free to check out some of the other content on the site and make sure to give HMF a follow on Twitter by hitting that button below. You can follow me personally on Twitter @tj_brashears or catch me on the Fantasy Life app @tjb128.
Author: TJ Brashears
A part time college student and full time fantasy player, TJ has been playing season long fantasy for 6 years now. He has had some success in his main league during that time, making the playoffs each year and bringing home two championships. TJ found his love for football when his Chicago Bears made a Super Bowl run back in 2005 and found his love for Fantasy when his team made a championship run with Aaron Rodgers at the helm in 2011. TJ’s love for fantasy football runs so deep he even wrote a college application essay about it. He’s played through many ups (drafting Knowshon Moreno in the last round in 2013) and downs (Spending a first round pick on Trent Richardson). However, TJ discovered the exciting world of daily fantasy during the 2015 NFL season and hasn’t looked back. He had moderate success during NFL and NBA seasons and really started putting the majority of his emphasis on DFS during baseball season. TJ looks forward to helping people become profitable players and is simply happy to have more players to sweat/tilt with him.