Welcome to another edition of HMF’s MLB Slate breakdown. We’re going to talk some tournament tactics on Fanduel tonight and it should be pretty interesting with both Kershaw and Coors on this 14-game main slate.
Clayton Kershaw ($12,700): Not much to say here, Kershaw is a beast, especially in a pitcher’s park. You’re likely going to have to make a decision between Kershaw and Coors and in those situations, I tend to side with the pitcher, just because they are much safer than the bats and we’ve seen some low scoring games in Coors this season. Put it this way, over 40% of games in Coors go under the implied total…There’s a much greater likelihood of Kershaw hitting value than those bats. I’m also hoping people fade Kershaw a little bit and go down to someone like Danny Duffy (who has some huge blow up potential today). Also, in case you needed more reason to play Kershaw, let’s take a look at some BvP.
Brandon Belt: 3 for 51 with 27 strikeouts. Wow.
Brandon Crawford: 4 for 29 with 11 strikeouts.
Hunter Pence: 6 for 66 with 17 strikeouts.
Michael Wacha ($7,700): If you’re looking to pay down to afford a Coors stack (Be leery of the weather there) I think Wacha is the way to go. The Blue Jays have just a 3.4 run team total and they’ve had the 5th worst wRC+ vs. righties this season to go along with the 8th highest K% vs. righties. Wacha has looked good this season and I like him pitching this one at home tonight.
*Those are really the only two pitchers I’m strongly considering today. I think they both provide the floor you need for cash and some nice upside for GPP.
Washington Nationals/Colorado Rockies: Almost anytime Coors is on the slate it’s the most popular stack, however, I think this is an O.K. spot to fade tonight. I’d love to play the Nationals lefties, Adam Eaton ($4,300), Bryce Harper ($5,500), and Daniel Murphy ($4,400) and I don’t mind a couple righties, Trea Turner ($4,500) and Ryan Zimmerman ($4,100) either. However, the weather is not looking good tonight. It’s going to be 44 degrees with a ton of potential for rain, and winds blowing in at 10 mph. There’s a decent chance this game gets delayed/postponed so I’m probably just going to fade it entirely but if you’re looking to get some low-owned exposure, I like stacking the back of the Rockies order with Gerardo Parra ($3,800), Trevor Story ($4,200), and Tony Wolters ($3,100).
Minnesota Twins: The Twins have a healthy team total of 4.8 runs, one of the highest on the slate, and I think there’s a lot of nice plays on Minnesota today going up against Cashner. Andrew Cashner has some serious splits, allowing a .380+ wOBA to lefties over the past couple years which puts Max Kepler ($3,500), Robbie Grossman ($3,000), and Jason Castro ($2,500) in play. On top of that I think you have to squeeze in the Twins’ two best players, Dozier ($3,500) and Sano ($3,500) into your stack. They’ve both been hitting the ball very hard, especially Sano who leads the entire league in average exit velocity. I love the 87 degrees temperature in this game but the wind blowing in at 17 mph does make me a little hesitant but, I’m hoping that wind can shift a little bit before game time and I love the Twins stack tonight.
Chicago White Sox: Yes, the White Sox offense has been putrid this season, scoring over nine runs just three times all season while scoring less than two runs six times this season. However, they’ve been pretty solid vs. southpaws, with the 5th highest wRC+ and just the 6th lowest K% against lefties this season. This Vegas line is pretty telling as Danny Duffy is just a -118 favorite against Dylan Covey and we’ve seen some reverse line movement, the majority of bets are on the under and the Royals but, the total has moved up and the line has moved in the White Sox favor, which may be an indication that some of the sharps in Vegas are bullish on the Sox bats. We could see this line to continue to move before lock and I like taking some bats from this all righty Sox lineup. My top four to stack would be Tim Anderson ($2,700), Melky Cabrera ($2,900), Jose Abreu ($3,000), and Todd Frazier ($3,300). I also don’t mind taking a shot on Matt Davidson ($2,500) and I wish I could play him alongside Abreu on Fanduel.
Other Stacks to Consider: Seattle Mariners, CIN/MIL, SD/ARZ
Chris Davis ($3,300): Chris Davis at home vs. a bad righty fly ball pitcher? Sign me up. Ramirez allows just over one home run per nine to lefties to go along with a pretty big 3.44 walks per nine allowed to lefties as well. Combine that with Davis’s homerun potential and I think we have a nice GPP play. I don’t love the weather for this game but I like the double dong upside Davis provides and I like correlating him with Seth Smith ($2,600) leading off tonight.
Mike Zunino ($2,200): There’s a lot of bats to like throughout the Seattle Lineup tonight and at the back end of the lineup, Zunino might be one of the best catcher punts on the board. Jordan Zimmerman is not a good pitcher and most importantly he doesn’t strike anybody out, which means the Mariners will put the ball in play a lot. I like Zunino as a cheap catcher with some pop.
Tyler Collins ($2,100): Collins hasn’t really done anything of note at all this season but, this could be a nice low-owned tournament spot. He’s batting in the two spot with the platoon advantage against righty Felix Hernandez and he may be a little unlucky this season as based on his batted ball data he has an expected wOBA of .310 vs righties this season. He’s a nice cheap punt to squeeze into a Kershaw or Coors lineup.
Thanks for the read guys! Good luck to everyone tonight, if you enjoyed this article feel free to check out some of the other content on the site and make sure to give HMF a follow on Twitter by hitting that button below. You can follow me personally on Twitter @tj_brashears or catch me on the Fantasy Life app @tjb128.
Author: TJ Brashears
A part time college student and full time fantasy player, TJ has been playing season long fantasy for 6 years now. He has had some success in his main league during that time, making the playoffs each year and bringing home two championships. TJ found his love for football when his Chicago Bears made a Super Bowl run back in 2005 and found his love for Fantasy when his team made a championship run with Aaron Rodgers at the helm in 2011. TJ’s love for fantasy football runs so deep he even wrote a college application essay about it. He’s played through many ups (drafting Knowshon Moreno in the last round in 2013) and downs (Spending a first round pick on Trent Richardson). However, TJ discovered the exciting world of daily fantasy during the 2015 NFL season and hasn’t looked back. He had moderate success during NFL and NBA seasons and really started putting the majority of his emphasis on DFS during baseball season. TJ looks forward to helping people become profitable players and is simply happy to have more players to sweat/tilt with him.