Happy Cinco De Mayo everyone! Welcome to another edition of HMF’s MLB Slate Breakdown. I’m going to break down my favorite GPP pitchers, stacks, and one-offs on today’s Fanduel main slate. There’s some intriguing high-priced pitcher options as well as a Coors game on this slate which leaves us with some really interesting decisions to make tonight. Without further ado, let’s get to it!
Stephen Strasburg ($10,400): My philosophy is usually to pay up to a stud pitcher rather than paying up for bats, and I think that’s what I’m going to do tonight. I’m debating between Strasburg and Archer as the ace of the night tonight but, the case for Strasburg is a strong one. He has the highest K potential on this slate, he’s the second biggest favorite on the slate (-168), and he’s scored 40+ Fanduel points in three of his five starts. Philadelphia also has the seventh highest K% vs. righties this season. Strasburg is the safest option on the board but, I think you can look to Archer in tournaments if you need the savings.
Chris Archer ($9,600): I love Archer tonight for tournaments. He hasn’t had a massive performance yet (40, 45, 35, 30, 20, 38 Fanduel points) but, I think we could see it tonight. Archer draws a matchup against a Blue Jays team that has just been putrid against righties this season (4th lowest wOBA, 9th highest K%) and he’s performed well against this team in the past. Toronto is going to have to roll out a righty heavy lineup and Archer has some nice splits at home (pitcher’s park) vs. righties with a 2.63 FIP and a 10.6 K/9 rate. As I mentioned, Archer has dominated these batters in the past, outside of Kendrys Morales, and honestly Morales is really the only bat in this lineup I’m afraid of.
Andrew Triggs ($7,800): I’ve played Triggs virtually every game, besides the game he got rocked, and I’m going to keep rolling with him tonight. I said it weeks ago that this guy has the talent of a $9K pitcher, four shutouts in five starts, and we finally saw the strikeout upside last game vs. the Astros when he threw 9 strikeouts in 7 innings. He threw a career high 95 pitches last game and Vegas is giving him a lot of respect as a -108 favorite vs. Detroit and Michael Fulmer. The Tigers are a scary team to pick on but, they do have the 11th highest K% vs. righties this season and after their top three hitters, the lineup isn’t nearly as dangerous. Triggs is a great GPP option at extremely low ownership and I think he’s a must play on Draftkings at $6,700.
*I’ll be completely fading Coors on Fanduel Tonight.
Washington Nationals: After weeks of complaints about their pricing, Fanduel has finally tightened things up and it’s going to be tough tonight. The Washington stack, Trea Turner ($4,100), Bryce Harper ($5,100), and Daniel Murphy ($4,100), is certainly expensive but I think it’s worth it if you can afford it. Washington has dominated righties this season with the 4th highest wRC+, the 2nd highest wOBA, and the 4th lowest K% vs. righties this season. Nick Pivetta, isn’t the most promising prospect in the league, and I’m definitely not afraid to pick on him tonight. I love all three of those guys and I’d also consider throwing in Jayson Werth ($3,000) if he’s batting in the 2-hole again tonight.
Minnesota Twins / Boston Red Sox: I’d much rather stack up this game and paying up at pitcher, than stacking up Coors tonight. On the Twins side, this is probably my favorite team to stack tonight and I’m hoping I can get them at some low ownership. Eduardo Rodriguez is not a good pitcher, his ERA of 2.7 is significantly higher than his FIP of 4.4 and there’s a lot of righties/switch hitters to target on the Twins. I’d look to play Brian Dozier ($4,200), Miguel Sano ($4,000), Robbie Grossman ($2,700), and Kennys Vargas ($2,900) batting 1,3,4, and 5 respectively. All those guys have fanatstic numbers at home vs. lefties: Brian Dozier .375 wOBA, Miguel Sano .411 wOBA, Robbie Grossman .362 wOBA, and Kennys Vargas .398 wOBA. Factor in wind blowing out at 10 mph and 76 degrees weather, I love the Twins tonight. On the Red Sox side, they’re a little too expensive but this matchup against gas can Phil Hughes is intriguing. Hughes has an xFIP over five the last two season and at the top of the order I’m targeting Dustin Pedroia ($2,900) leading off. Pedroia has mashed Hughes in the past, going 16 for 41 with 5 homeruns and 3 doubles. Along with Pedroia I’d stack Andrew Benintendi ($3,800), Mookie Betts ($4,100), and Hanley Ramirez ($3,800). I like the Twins side better but, I think this could be the blow-up game we’ve been waiting for from the Red Sox.
Los Angeles Dodgers: As bad as the Dodgers are against lefties, they dominate right handed pitching, with the 3rd highest wRC+ against righties since the beginning of last season. I expect this Dodgers stack to go way under-owned and I’m looking to play Corey Seager ($3,500), Justin Turner ($3,700), Yasmani Grandal ($2,700) and Joc Pederson ($2,700). Jhoulys Chacin has struggled against lefties throughout his career, and especially this season with a .396 wOBA allowed to left-handed bats this season. Both Seager and Turner destroy virtually everything in Chacin’s repertoire and are especially good against slower pitchers like Jhoulys Chacin and his average 87 MPH velocity. Grandal hasn’t looked great but, he’s a little too cheap for a catcher batting clean-up and Joc Pederson provides a lot of power for just $2,700. I think this Dodgers stack could be sneaky tonight
Freddie Freeman ($4,500): It’s tough to fit Freddie Freeman in if you’re stacking but, he’s the top hitter on the board in my opinion, and I don’t think it’s very close. He’s been absolutely on fire, he’s facing off against a not-so-good righty who’s due for some serious regression (Lance Lynn’s FIP is nearly two runs higher than his ERA), and he’s playing this one at home in this new hitters park. Love Freeman in all formats tonight.
Edwin Encarnacion ($3,100): I like to list guys at different positions but, Encarnacion is in a fantastic spot for tournaments tonight. Edwin hasn’t looked great as a member of the Indians but, Hammel and the Royals bullpen have looked especially bad too. Vegas is giving the Indians a ton of love, as a -169 favorite and a 4.6 run team total. He’s still been hitting the hard and hits the ball significantly better against slower pitchers like Hammel (88.3 MPH average velocity). I like Encarnacion is a nice play in GPP and I think the Indians stack could be sneaky tonight.
Ryan Schimpf ($3,100): I actually don’t mind targeting Maeda but, if you’re home-run hunting, this is a nice spot for Schimpf. We all know Schimpf destroys righties but, his pitch profiles matches up awesomely with Maeda as Schimpf dominates changeups, sinkerballs, and virtually all pitches under 90 MPH. I’m going to have some Schimpf in my lineups tonight.
Thanks for the read guys! Good luck to everyone tonight, if you enjoyed this article feel free to check out some of the other content on the site and make sure to give HMF a follow on Twitter by hitting that button below. You can follow me personally on Twitter @tj_brashears or catch me on the Fantasy Life app @tjb128.
Author: TJ Brashears
A part time college student and full time fantasy player, TJ has been playing season long fantasy for 6 years now. He has had some success in his main league during that time, making the playoffs each year and bringing home two championships. TJ found his love for football when his Chicago Bears made a Super Bowl run back in 2005 and found his love for Fantasy when his team made a championship run with Aaron Rodgers at the helm in 2011. TJ’s love for fantasy football runs so deep he even wrote a college application essay about it. He’s played through many ups (drafting Knowshon Moreno in the last round in 2013) and downs (Spending a first round pick on Trent Richardson). However, TJ discovered the exciting world of daily fantasy during the 2015 NFL season and hasn’t looked back. He had moderate success during NFL and NBA seasons and really started putting the majority of his emphasis on DFS during baseball season. TJ looks forward to helping people become profitable players and is simply happy to have more players to sweat/tilt with him.